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NFL Odds - Rematch between Patriots and Giants gives bettors plenty to ponder

Friday, January 27th, 2012

By  Scott Cooley Bookmark and Share
NFL-Giants-Superbowl-Odds

NFL Betting Online: Super Bowl XLVI is being dubbed “The Rematch” because the New England Patriots and New York Giants played for the Lombardi Trophy just four years ago.

New York had to win its final regular season game just to make the playoffs; much like it did when it won Super Bowl XLII as a Wild Card qualifier. The Patriots enter the rematch on a 10-game win streak. But the Giants are the hotter bet right now, going 7-1 against the NFL odds over their last eight outings while New England is 4-4 ATS in that stretch.

In case you’ve been living under a rock for the last five years, we’ll quickly recap that first epic Super Bowl between these two, because it does serve as some precedent. New York was staked as a 12-point underdog and the total closed at 54.5.

New England led 7-3 after a scoreless third quarter. The Giants took a 10-7 lead early in the fourth behind an Eli Manning touchdown pass. Tom Brady found Randy Moss in the end zone with two minutes left for the go-ahead score.

Everyone thought the game was over after that. But Manning connected with David Tyree on a 32-yard pass that went down in NFL lore as the “Helmet Catch” to extend the Giants’ final drive. With 35 seconds on the clock, Manning hit Plaxico Burress with an over-the-shoulder pass in the corner of the end zone.

New York won 17-14 and prevented the Pats from completing a perfect 19-0 season.

The Giants have 14 players remaining that were on the Super Bowl XLII roster. The Patriots have seven.

Tom Brady was harassed by New York’s aggressive defensive line in that game. He was sacked five times, which disrupted the Pats potent passing attack. Brady misfired on 19 of his 48 attempts and finished with only one touchdown pass.

Because of the Giants pressure, there wasn’t much scoring in the game. That Super Bowl was played in a dome, just like this one, and the over/under was inflated.

Bettors must also break down the 2011 regular season matchup between these teams. The game was played at Foxboro and New England closed as a 9-point favorite with a total of 51.

Like Super Bowl XLII, there wasn’t much scoring as they played to a 0-0 stalemate until the second half. The Giants jumped out to a 10-0 third-quarter lead but the Pats clawed back with 13 unanswered.

Also akin to the previous meeting, the contest looked to be over when Brady threw a touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski with 1:36 left on the clock. But that was too much time as Manning orchestrated an 80-yard drive that ended with a one-yard touchdown strike to Jake Ballard. The scoreboard read 24-20 with 15 seconds remaining.

So the last two times Manning has seen the Patriots, he’s beaten them on last-minute touchdown passes. David sleighing Goliath, if you will, except the “Giant” wins.

What does this all mean? Well it means that in the public’s eyes the Giants are the better team. And that’s why we’ve seen New York money pour in over the first two days of betting.

One key injury to note when handicapping Super Bowl XLVI is Gronkowski’s. Multiple reports indicated the prolific tight end left Gillette Stadium in a walking boot after the win over Baltimore. His ankle rolled severely on a tackle. He left the game briefly but returned.

One Las Vegas oddsmaker said that if Gronkowski can’t play it would mean a half point or even a full point to the spread. The second-year stud led the NFL in touchdowns (17) while hauling in 90 passes for 1,327 yards.

It’s surprising to see no betting love for New England because this is usually a public-heavy team. Our suggestion is to fade the early action because we expect the Patriots to make amends for their prior two meltdowns. Bill Belichick won’t be outcoached by Tom Coughlin three straight times.

Super Bowl XLVI is expected to command the largest betting handle ever, with more than $10 billion wagered on the big game. BookMaker sportsbook released the NFL odds for the Super Bowl late Sunday. The Patriots opened as a 3.5-point favorite and the game total was 55.5. The over/under has held steady but early money has flooded in on New York, dropping the spread to the key number of -3.

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  • Wednesday, February 22, 2012, 5:24:10 PM